Does Bombing Iran Make Sense?

Does Bombing Iran Make Sense?

As tensions rise in the Middle East surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, the calls are getting louder to engage the country militarily. Of course, the main proponent for this stance is Israel, which makes sense since they are the frequent targets of Iran’s vitriolic hyperbole.

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But, Israel cannot strike Iran without the permission of the United States. Whether that permission is implicit or explicit really does not make much difference. The United States will be blamed and will be pulled into a potential third simultaneous conflict in the region. That is something this country cannot afford. In case you haven’t noticed, we have run out of treasure a long time ago and now it’s a matter of how many precious lives we are willing to sacrifice should a conflict escalate to the point that we are at war in the Straits of Hormuz, the oil shipping channel that Iran is trying so hard to control.

At the end of the day, a nuclear Iran is not a good thing…unless you’re Iranian of course. And, that is part of the problem. Iran believes that it has the right to arm itself with any and all types of weaponry. It’s hard to argue against that assertion since that is basically the notion shared by all countries in this volatile region. All the major players, Saudi, Iran, and Israel are armed to the gills with weaponry, nuclear (in the case of Israel) and conventional alike.

As it stands today, the Iranian regime is feeling the heat of global sanctions, especially those that have tightened money flows into the country. The currency has devalued by more than 20% in recent weeks and the country, a major oil producer, is running out of gasoline…ironically, it has limited refining capacity. Internally, the population is getting restless and seeking political change. Two years ago the country’s leadership faced a severe challenge from a wide swath of the population. It quelled the protests in the streets using thugs imported from Lebanon. That was a golden opportunity for the US and others to act to bring down the regime. Nothing happened and the protests were put down violently.

Fast-forward to today and there are several scenarios, none good, which might play out in the months ahead. First, we have to remember that we are in an election year and that means hot rhetoric from the incumbent and the challengers. If we sanction an attack on Iran, something that has strong likelihood, we will be adding to the pain that we feel at the pump, overnight. Already gas prices are approaching the $4 per gallon level, a point at which economic growth becomes impacted. A nascent recovery cannot withstand prices much higher than that. The head of Shell Oil predicts that gasoline will reach $5 per gallon by the summer. Much of the increase in the price of gas and oil recently is not demand driven but the result of a war premium in the price of oil combined with reduced refining capacity for gasoline, which is actually suffering lack luster demand.

Attacking Iran will lead to a spike in global oil prices. Some predict a spike to $200 overnight. Of course, overnight spikes, while scary, tend to deflate as quickly as they happen. But, engaging a major oil producer in a war will lead to higher prices at the pump and it will stall economic growth.

The option I support, similar to the one that is supported by Ron Paul, is to allow these new tougher sanctions to work. If Israel wants to bomb Iran, it should do so on its own dime, and while we will be blamed, we cannot engage in another war for one simple reason: we CAN’T afford either the cost in treasure or in lives…or the toll on our economy.

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Regards,

Kevin Raymond

13 Responses

  1. George Redei

    1.Are you convinced that Arab countries like the Iranian nuclear bomb Idea?
    2.it seems you that Israel can be destroyed for maintaining the American gasoline prices?and the Israel government will accept such a suicidal policy?

    George Redei
    Jerusalem
    Israel

  2. steve rega

    I have lost my faith in my country. I think we should hit Iran with missiles to stop their nuclear dreams, as I believe they will cause Armageddon. More importantly, I have been working for 30 years and now I’ve lost everything when the housing market and stock market crashed. I’m virtually broke, my kids go without, and my construction business has suffered great loss. Now I’m sure I will lose my house, and i can’t find other work. I have no idea what to do.

  3. Richard Earl Kennedy

    I do not feel that bombing Iran is necessary yet since we can stop them from building missile silos. Now that the attention is on them, instead of us and other world powers, we can stop any attempt for them to do that. Plus, we can keep the sanctions up on them since they’ll go broke before we will, with them and their cronies raising the gas prices on us. All that does is give the Military and the Government agencies another write off on their accounting books to get the money back from the Fed at the end of their fiscal years and all of the people that support America. Instead, they will be fine with making enough money to be able to afford the higher gas prices even if we have to subsidize them to keep the economy from crashing.

  4. Alis

    Kevin,
    I am surprised at your assessments here. First of all, Iranian nuclear program is under strict IAEA supervision, and by international convention, Iran is allowed to develop nuclear energy. There is no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and all the available intelligence is either fabricated or from unreliable sources. You are speaking as if there is actual proof that Iran is developing a nuke bomb and no such proof exists. Contrast that with the Israeli nuclear program which has never been inspected and never will be since US will veto any such resolution. I urge you to clear your position here and I request clarity on these points. The world is not fair, it has never been and will never be. However, we have a responsibility to present our views in a fair and calculated manner. You are basically promoting war towards a problem which is non existent and you need to be accountable for your reporting. I expect you will clarify your article and respond to some of my points here.

    Thank you

  5. JC Mohan

    Iran Sanctions Biting the US Right Back.

    It takes one solid idea, in a world desperately seeking them, to start the creaky shift to a new global order. Emerging economies have been nipping at the heels of the world’s governing bodies for decades, demanding entry into the hallowed halls of the UN Security Council’s permanent members; insisting on a seat at the main table at the IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organization.

    When European leaders went begging for scraps at the last G-20 meeting, the BRICs found their feet and yawned a collective “no.” It signaled a reversal of fortunes, that meeting, and the idea that they can forge their own path was born. The BRICs then announced their first joint foreign policy statement last November – on Syria, of all places. The idea matured.

    But US/EU sanctions against Iran are giving the idea steam. One has to act when faced with a dilemma, after all – and that dilemma has been literally foisted in the faces of nonaligned countries the world around: “sanction Iran or else.”

    Now they are just shrugging and finding ways around the maze of traps set up by the Department of Treasury. Why should they care much? What is the United States today but an unwieldy bully with few arrows left in its quiver?

    This week the US is putting the screws on Belgian-based SWIFT. If you’ve ever wired money to another country, you have used SWIFT – it is essentially the messaging system between banks that alerts them to money transfers. The US wants to cut Iranian banks out of the SWIFT system, in effect making it practically impossible for anyone inside or outside Iran to send or receive funds.

    Who knows what Iran will do if this comes to pass? It will probably just join non-aligned countries to create an alternative SWIFT, further undermining the western grip on global finance. Iran, after all, decided last year not to put up with the prospect of perpetual cyberwar with the west, and is forging ahead with plans to create a closed internet system for itself.

    Each step the US and EU take to hinder Iran’s flexibility is countered with an innovative solution – one that includes more and more non-western players who are keen to craft a new global order. They used to worry about that kind of confrontation with the west, but the collapse of the current order has left few obstacles in their paths – and even offers incentives.

    Like the proverbial finger in the dyke to block a leak…the water will always find another way out and possibly even bust open the dam. A warning to Washington: the burden of anxiety will always fall on the one who needs the dam most.

  6. Stuart Cox

    I have never heard Ron Paul say “let the sanctions on Iran play out” or anything like that. Ron Paul has said that sanctions on Iran are an act of war. He says we should leave them alone and trade with them and engage in diplomacy. If I am wrong I sure would like to hear more!

  7. Ken

    WOW! Something I actually agree with you on – we should not attack Iran. It’s unfortunate that the FIRST reason for not going in is money, with lives being second.

    Israel is not going to wait for permission from the US (we do not own them), they will make a decision on how many lives and resources they can lose from an attack, and how long they can sustain the fighting. Iran will get it’s resources from China and Russia, and this has to be the ONLY reason Israel does not engage, as it means a global confrontation that NO ONE can afford.

  8. boncos

    Just wake up…America..!!! it’s time to work, welcome to the real world, not just a dream…n also good bye “New World Order” Israel must pay for what they done n also their colonies….it’s nature not Iran fould…don’t blame Iran or anyone else..just wake up…see the truth inside n face it with brave heart…good luck

  9. Denny

    To Steve Rega

    Millions of Americans are in the same spot you are. I m seventy years old, and think the Lord every day that I m healthy enough to still climb ladders, pull wire, install lighting fixtures, crawl through attics and crawl spaces. I am a electrician. Over forty five years, my wife and I own our own electrical contracting business. We have for twenty eight years. We used to have sixteen employees working in the field on various projects. Now, there is only me and one part time electrician, if I need help. There also is no end in sight.

    Obama has had three plus years to do something. Which he has. he has given hand outs to his supporters, increased the National Debt to the highest it has ever been, by passed the constitution with regulations from the EPA and the DOE. He is a traitor to this country. He, his administration, and his czars. He has increased the Federal Payroll by millions and then tells us unemployment is going down.

    He is no friend of the working people. Just the opposite. Now he wants to gut our National Defense. I could go on and on. But I will not. How the American people got dumbed down by this man, I will never know. But then look at what Hitler did to the German people before WW2. Look how the main stream media supports his lies.

  10. Harris Klein

    Kevin,

    From what I have heard from my Israel folks who visit here, you are all wet as are most of the other comments I have seen. Some are partially correct but others are what I said- all wet. If Iran should wip Israel that is opnl;y7 the beginning as Iran would then hit other western nations and the good old USA. World dominance is their desire. I do not like war one bit and all of our 3 veteran sons agree. We have served as have my wife’s 2 brothers (her former 4 year senior brother died coming ashore at Salerno while her 8 year older brother was in the 2nd wave on D-ay but took a mine in Germany and is still drawing on 100% disability from losses that only a tough guy could handle- one arm,one testicle, 4 fingers on his other hand. The other finger was somewhat restored and still alive as widower at 91). He also lost a goodly portion of his digestive system while spending 18 months in a V.A.hospital before returning home.Yes, my wife’s family was hit very hard with both brothers killed or badly injured and we hate war. The is a however which says we may have no choice regarding Iran. Most sensible folks have no doubt about their intentions of destroying the West.Iran has even said this more than once through their demented leader.The entire West is their enemy. If you don’t feel this is correct you are drinking something very potent. If Israel attacks all of the West must support her. I do not mean with troops but with robotic aircraft to take out what remains of Iran. This is not an option but is a must to preserve the world. I’d rather see a world without an Iran than what Iran would do beyond Israel. Any one other than a total idiot agrees with this. Now let’s focus on November and replacing our Muslim terrorist lover in the WH.Yes, that needs to happen or all else is for naught as far as the greatest nation in history is concerned. My family loves the USA and for all it stands.Too many have fought and died for our way of life and for all we have done to help the world.

    Harris Klein

  11. Allistair

    The real forces of “evil” in the World are the countries that currently have (and wish to maintain at ALL cost) the very unfair economic advantages they have had for hundreds of years now over others.

    In an attempt to maintain the huge economic (and military) advantages they enjoyed for centuries now, they will use deception, misdirection, lies (and half-truths) and any trickery they can imagine to deceive you into NOT recognizing the truth.

    Additionally, a few of us who see the reality for what it is, might say or do nothing about it. Or some of us might even take a calculated “position” based on fear and selfishness and say – “it is either we or them”, as we come to recognize that we live in a world-wide economic/social system that is, as part of it’s INNATE character, based on the exploitation of man by man and country by country. And this is how the World has been for thousands of years now as it went through various social/economic systems of Slavery, which was then replaced by Feudalism and which in turn was replaced by (monopoly/imperialist) Capitalism.

    The next stage for the World (if we are to save mankind from total destruction) is to dismantle the current social/economic system and replace it with a POPULAR and SUSTAINABLE alternative. An alternative in which we see…

    (1) End of exploitation of man by man and country by country (i.e. the end of all wars and the making of weapons for war). This includes every able-bodied person in a job with good wages and benefits such that one can really prosper from their job and not be burdened with personal debts.

    (2) A true “Free Enterprise” economic system in which goods and services are produced/supplied primarily based on human NEEDS and with due care for the environment. Good and reasonable profits will still be made, but the profit needs (greed) of the relative FEW will not be the major driving force of production. Production will be based primarily on human needs – as it should always be.

    (3) A social system that properly takes care of the aged, the sick and the disabled. This includes FREE (or very low-cost) high-quality medical services for ALL, as every able-bodied producer/worker will pay a (small) fee into the system (hence, the elimination of speculation and profiteering that can make medical services prohibitive – like it is currently in the USA, for example).

    (4) Free (or very low-cost) education for ALL, supported in the same way like free (or low-cost) medical services to avoid speculation and profiteering that can drive up the cost of education and deny many people the educational they hope to gain (again, like we see happening in even “wealthy” USA, more and more people are denied the education they seek because of rising cost and the “downsizing” of Government support for “public” education, etc.).

    (5) etc, etc. (I am sure any RATIONAL person can add to this list).

    Finally, in this alternative to our current social/economic system, everyone will come to know that RATIONAL selfishness/self-interest/private-interest is really in harmony with nature. And equally so, RATIONAL selflessness (giving to and serving others) is ALSO in harmony with nature. That it is the extremes that can bring harm to self and to others. Extremes like – extreme greed, vampiric monopolies, sweat-shop working conditions, very low employee wages contrast with exorbitant million$ salaries and bonuses for the managers/CEOs, over-population, excess/extreme/out-dated religious/traditional rules, active racism, etc. AND, the general opposites to some of the extremes in the preceding list, including, turning the other cheek (cowardice), extreme philanthropy (charity can be of the “wrong” type as it can keep people mentally/psychologically entrapped and also give an unjust economic system the semblance of being a “humane” system), praying for and “loving” your enemy (even while they bomb your children to bits!), “blessing” military weapons, etc.

    Thank you for reading.

  12. Robert

    The radical Muslim countries are out to “wipe Israel off the face of the earth” and to destroy America. They think nothing of killing Christians in their countries. It is their mission to kill all the “infidels”. Iran says they are not going to wait for their “enemies” to attack. Of course they should be bombed, without hesitation.

  13. Edward Kerrc

    Does bombing Iran make sense? It’s been alleged by some that the forces who have taken over control of the US wish to eventually take over the entire world. It’s also alleged that war with Iran, Syria, China and Russia are also part of their “end game”, if you will! It’s also been alleged that the US has positioned an aging carrier in the straights in order to have a target for the Iranians to sink, this justifying military action. Is it true? I dunno? Do you? However, if the Enterprise gets attacked (or we are told that it was) I’d be real suspicious.

    The idea that Iran must be prevented from developing a nuke at all costs to protect Israel is laughable. Iranians, even the crazy ones, are not suicidal. The idea that they have a missile that could deliver a war head to the US is also laughable.
    Our behavior toward Iran has been less than “friendly” since the end of WWII (especially in ’53) so it’s little wonder that they kinda don’t care for the US. Taking hostages in the eighty’s didn’t help their cause either.

    What is really at the bottom of this is Iran’s sales of oil for gold and not US dollars. (can’t have that!)
    Wanting to sell oil for euro’s is why Saddam got it (and maybe just a bit because he had planned to assassinate the elder Bush…but failed to get a chance)

    Bottom line, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to turn on the news some evening soon and hear that an incident had occurred in the straights and we would be “obligated” to respond in kind.

    Bombing Iran would be a disaster from the gate and would only hasten the demise of what is left of the US’s economy. Unless or until we wrest our country back from those who now control it we will suffer what we will suffer. (and yes, if you keep a journal you have my permission to make a note of that)

    Edward Kerr


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