Should We Bomb Iran? – Part 2

The Iranian Threat – Part 2

My article on Iran, its nuclear ambitions, Israel’s possible response and that of the United States elicited many responses…almost as many as the articles on Ron Paul not having a chance to win the Republican nomination.  Here’s my take on your comments…

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The responses ranged from agreement to disagreement and I would urge you to read them here: https://www.leagueofpower.com/freedom-by-friday/does-bombing-iran-make-sense/#comments.

Iran’s is a global pariah, no doubt about that. Should they be taken seriously? Absolutely. Just look at the effect on oil prices from the saber rattling that is taking place. The country is nowhere near completing a weapon and yet it’s rhetoric has sent politicians in the West into a tizzy.

But, Iran is not only a pariah to the West. It also faces hostility from its neighbors. As a majority Shiite non-Arab country it is largely surrounded by countries that believe in the Sunni strain of Islam and which sport an Arab majority. There is no love lost between Iran and its neighbors. They privately would welcome a non-nuclear Iran, by any means. They’re just not going to admit it publicly.

Destroying Iran’s nuclear dreams are easier said than done. The development of the technology is as important, if not more important, than the actual development of a weapon. Weapons can be destroyed, bunkers blown up, scientists killed…but knowledge is much harder to erase. As long as the Iranian Mullahs are in power, that knowledge will always be a threat.

The real, and only way to defuse the situation is to bring down the Iranian regime that is in power today and move Iran back to a democratic society. The Iranian people are not fond of their government, but lack the power to overthrow it. Riots in the past few years have been put down violently by Iran’s military and by mercenaries brought in from nearby Lebanon. The West stood by and did nothing.

Doing nothing then was an option. That option bought Iran time, time to further develop its technology. It allowed Iran time to cement relations with Russia and China; its two key suppliers for weaponry and technology.

Today, Iran is facing strong sanctions from the West. China and Russia are too becoming antsy about their support for this least liked of all nations. But, all must tread carefully nevertheless because Iran has that one card that seems to control the deck and dictate most of our modern day conflicts: oil. Not only it’s own oil but that of its neighbors.

Iran may not be able to defend itself from a strike from a nuclear-armed Israel, but it can cause havoc amongst its neighbors with retaliatory strikes. It can disrupt the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz and it can lob missiles at Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab oil producers. It can use its Lebanese proxies to wage a covert war all over the world. It is these options that scare the West more than a half-assed nuclear program that will likely take years before it produces a weapon…if ever.

The best alternative is to foment discord by the Iranian population towards its government and this time to come to the aid of the opposition instead of running away from them. Had we chosen that route two years ago, chances are that we would not be looking at a more expensive proposition today, both in terms of lives and treasure.

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Regards,

Kevin Raymond

6 Responses

  1. steve

    With respect, your article is well written, but largely rehashes a mainstream view of affairs in the world regarding Iran. The situation is not as we are told in regular news, TV, etc. Iran is Iran, yes… but can do nothing with a nuke, they would be instantaneously annihilated by the west which has 40 some military bases surrounding them in close proximity.

  2. Lover Of Muslims

    You Peoples Are A Non Muslim And You Are A Very Very Duffer And Miser Peoples.You Are Not Afraid From Iran’s Atom Bomb You just Want To Get That’s Oil which is Most Important For You American’s.You Thought That You Are A Super Power But It is Only True For The World.My ALLAH is The Superior From All The Things in the World…You Peoples are Layers.We Don’t Like You American’s You Are Bad Peoples Who Killed A Lot Of Our Muslims Brothers.
    I Don’t Like Your garbage That You Write Above….
    Idiot Close This And Get Loss.
    Maa Lun Gando Behen Lun

  3. Brent Garner

    1. Those who speak of “containing” a nuclear armed Iran are living in denial. “Containment” presumes deterrence. Deterrence presumes that the country or person to be deterred has something of value to themselves that can be held at risk. Deterrence works against Russia and China because of this fact. However, how do you deter someone who is perfectly willing to die to bring forth the promised Mahdi? The answer is you don’t. Nothing deters a fanatic. All you can do with a fanatic is to either take away his/her weapons or kill him. Personally, killing fanatics is much more effective.

    2. Would Iran use its nuclear weapons assuming they obtain them? That is the $64 Trillion dollar question. Iran seeks nuclear weapons for two reasons. First, regime survival. The Mullahs are fully aware that no nuclear armed state has been overthrown, ever! Therefore, obtaining nuclear weapons means guaranteed regime survival. Second, nuclear weapons provide Iran with a threat which it can hold over the head of its neighbors as well as Israel. Would Iran actually nuke Israel? Depends. I believe that if they felt they had the accuracy to do so that Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod, etc., would suddenly become vulnerable targets. But Iran will not nuke Jerusalem for fear of destroying the Dome of the Rock. That would be a sacrilege in Islam that would not be tolerated.

    3. A nuclear armed Iran will most certainly set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is already on record as saying that if Iran is allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, then Saudi Arabia, as a deterrent, will be forced to acquire nuclear weapons.

    Bottomeline is that a nuclear armed Iran is a BAD idea. A war to eliminate that possibility, even for the short term is also a bad idea–note the lack of capitals, but would be preferable even with the economic disruption that would occur, to allowing a nuclear armed Iran to come into existence.

  4. Michael Tubbs

    I agree totally with your thinking, but there is something you’re not looking at–the American people. Do you think the American people will support a war when all the time we have a recession going on? You know the American people on DECEMBER 7th 1941 where having a rally in Saint Louis against getting involved in a war with Japan and Germany and while the speaker was talking his anti war speech he was givin a message that Japan had Bombed Hawaii, and then he spoke his anti war message for a half hour more. I believe this was at a Republican rally against president Roosevelt . Now at the time our Country was just coming out of the great depression. I totally agree with you, but I see history repeating itself but the stakes and the price will even be higher. We are the worlds Supper Power,the dollar is the Main standard world currency,and our economy is the biggest in the world ,so add it up and see what you get?

  5. Иван

    The greatest threat to peace and human civilization, represent the United States. It is now understood by all. America is constantly fueling animosity between the two countries, unleashes a local war, trying to conquer, destroy the state. That the United States destroyed the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Egypt, Libya. Now America is a blatant interference in Syria, Iran, Russia, Ukraine and other peace-loving countries. Uymites you finally! Or is it going to end in tears for you. There is a proverb: “You are to blame just because I want to eat”. You better install democracy in their country. What do you call a democracy, has nothing to do with the concept of Democracy. Your country – an empire of the world’s evil, it is the only country that has an evil world!

  6. Allistair

    Dear LOP,

    Once you come to realize that – those who have been enjoying hugely unfair/unjust economic (and military) advantages for centuries now, will use ANY means they believe necessary to maintain their unfair advantages – you will then come to have a proper (better) understanding of what is really happening in the World.

    With that recognition, you will be able to listen to (or read) the “news” from the corporate-controlled media, and identify the lies, deceptions, half-truths (or half-lies). You will KNOW when a bit of information from the “news” is intended to manipulate your emotions, your thinking and your VOTING decisions.

    You will also know that you should NEVER go to fight a war in a foreign land. Observe that the very wealthy people and their immediate families (i.e. the 1%) virtually NEVER go to war in a foreign land. Usually, the soldier who die in Iraq or Afghanistan is almost invariably from a low-income or poor family.

    Thank you for reading.


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