I’ve been making election predictions professionally for close to 30 years now, and in all that time, there are only a handful of races I’ve gotten wrong. All of those were House races in states where I was unable to ascertain a certain X-factor in the race. I’ve never called a presidential race incorrectly, dating back to when I predicted George HW Bush’s defeat by Bill Clinton in 1992. That’s because I sometimes analyze quirky, politically incorrect factors that the mainstream media won’t dare touch with a 10-foot pole. And right now I’m telling y’all: CALM DOWN. As long as you do YOUR part in November, President Donald J. Trump has got this.
If you missed my earlier analysis on this, you might want to go back and read that as well. I discuss some insider knowledge I have on what’s wrong with most of the polling outlets (they’re financially broke and panicking); how the Biden-Harris ticket’s assault on religious liberty has even the Amish spooked enough to endorse a presidential candidate (Trump) for the first time in 242 years; and how Democrat voters switching parties has Silicon Valley reacting (by dropping a nuclear Nadler in their blue jeans).
Here’s some more of my not-so-scientific analysis that is better than anything you’ll find on any news channel for the next few weeks.
What Black Women Voters Really Think about Carmella Harris
The media doesn’t understand the first thing about the “black community” in America. They just don’t. They might as well be talking about Martians. Even black news anchors like Joy Reid and Gayle King (such phonies) don’t know what they’re talking about. The “black vote” in 2020 is really a wild card right now and it’s a total mystery to the media.
Here’s a tip that I used to share when I was training reporters at ABC News years ago: If you want to know what any minority community is really thinking on any issue, go get your hair cut in their neighborhood tomorrow. This totally works.
For the past couple of decades that I’ve been doing my quirky election prognostications, I always make it a point – no matter what city I’m living in – to drive over to the most urban part of town and get my hair cut at the same salon where all the middle- and working-class black ladies get their hair and nails so fabulously done.
Little old pasty-white, Vanilla Ice Viking, Christian, patriarchal moí? Yep.
I highly recommend it. It’s more fun than a dwarf-tossing contest at Kid Rock’s house on the Fourth of July. (Now there’s an election story I’m going to have to share with everyone someday.) You will be invisible for the 20 or 30 minutes that it takes you to get a trim or a touch-up. Just shut up and listen, and you will get the most honest, direct and unfiltered opinions from the black community that you could possibly imagine – and these will be real-life opinions that you will never hear on CNN or Fox News.
So, after my haircut last week, I have some fresh perspective on the 2020 election. First of all, the black community feels that Joe Biden really blew it with his VP pick. Working- and middle-class black women despise Kamala Harris. They all mispronounce her name as “Carmella” Harris (because she’s caramel-colored, i.e. not really black).
And there’s another really important fact to consider, so long as I’m being wildly politically incorrect here. Women voters – and especially black women voters – are incredibly empathetic voters. That’s not a criticism. It’s just a fact. Men tend to vote more on economic concerns, while women are more likely to project themselves into the shoes of another woman when considering who to vote for. That’s not a good thing or a bad thing and I’m not judging – it just IS.
Barack Obama enjoyed record-high black voter turnout in 2008 and 2012. I predicted his victory in both of those elections, by the way. Part of the reason why he enjoyed such high support from the black community was because the black female voter turnout was incredibly high. They were not voting for Barack Obama; they were voting for Michelle.
The reason why black women voted for Barack Obama was because they could picture themselves in MICHELLE Obama’s shoes.
Black women voted for Barack Obama in record numbers because they were able to live vicariously through Michelle Obama. Being First Lady sounds like a pretty good gig when you think about it from their perspective. Put your feet up most of the time. Let the man bring home the bacon. Get dolled up for swanky events with all the celebrities and world leaders. Get your picture on all the magazine covers (as long as you’re a Democrat First Lady). People serving and waiting on you hand and foot, 24/7. Beats the hell out of stocking Joe Biden’s grocery store shelves.
So, what are the black ladies in the hair salon saying – honestly and unfiltered – when they look at “Carmella” Harris? Whose “shoes” are they projecting themselves into?
Mrs. Willie Brown.
When black women look at Kamala Harris, they see a light-skinned, aggressive, not-really-black vamp who would make a move on their own husbands, boyfriends or significant others.
They’re not empathizing with Kamala Harris, who they see as a gold-digging opportunist who will sell her body to get ahead. Black women voters are empathizing with the pain that California State Assembly Speaker Willie Brown’s wife went through, when he was buying Kamala Harris a BMW, appointing her to state boards with six-figure salaries, and parading Harris around in a dog collar at orgies with Hollywood producers (according to the Crazy Days and Nights blog which supposedly has the pictures).
A few weeks ago when Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate, I said that Trump had dodged a bullet. If Biden had picked Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Val Deming or even human parade float Stacey Abrams, Trump might have been in trouble. But Biden picked the absolute worst possible choice that he could have made in selecting a “black female” running mate. Black women voters don’t consider Kamala Harris to be a member of their community. They know that Kamala Harris herself never identified as a “black” woman until she decided to run for president last year.
I am not suggesting that Trump is going to enjoy some landslide support among the black community in November. He’s not. If Trump pulls as much as 12% of the black vote, it will be a record-breaking triumph, like no Republican candidate has enjoyed since Eisenhower.
But I think that one of the big surprises among all the experts is going to be the tepid black voter turnout that results from “Carmella” being on the Democrat ticket. The overall black voter turnout is going to be surprisingly low, because many black female voters are simply not going to show up on Election Day. It literally causes them emotional pain to think about Kamala Harris in the White House, because they see Harris for what she really is.