Where to Next?

Iowa is over. Ron Paul did not win. He made a great showing though, solidifying his place among the top three candidates…none of whom were able to garner more than 25% of the vote. A victory of sorts, many will argue for Dr. Paul. But, it is not enough to catapult him higher. I understand this is a source for consternation for many who would like to see his radical anti-establishment agenda move forward.

As I said before, I do not think he will win the Republican nomination, but I do think that his showing in Iowa and his strong financial position will allow him to further impart his message to the masses in the weeks ahead.

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The big surprise was Rick Santorum, the God fearing conservative who spent less per vote than any of the top five candidates. But, in a state like Iowa where fully 60% consider themselves to have strong evangelical beliefs, that is not a surprise. How he fares is in the non Bible belt states will determine the future of his campaign. It does not look good, regardless of what happened in Iowa. Santorum’s only hope is that people look to him as the anti-Romney.

Mitt Romney can’t seem to shake the fact that more Republicans would like to see someone else be their nominee. After a while, this has got to be frustrating and somewhat minimizing as well. All that money, about $100 per vote is what he spent, and still only 25% of the voters chose him. That number is not just an Iowa phenomenon, but parallels nationwide polling. He’ll do well in New Hampshire, but that is a given since he has a home there and was Governor of nearby Massachusetts.

Romney’s big problem is trust and faith. Few trust him to transform himself into a true conservative and Republican voters, especially the evangelical crowd just doesn’t buy into a Mormon in the Whitehouse. His only hope is that Santorum, Paul and Gingrich split the voters so badly that 25% will be enough to take center-stage in Tampa later this year. He has little hope of being the choice of a true majority of the party, but he might be the best bet to beat Obama. What Mitt lacks more than anything is passion. He’s the Al Gore of the Republican Party.

Iowa is hardly a good representation or predictor of who will win the nomination. It is a great predictor of who won’t win. That list is growing longer by the day. Bachman is out, Cain is out and Huntsman was never in. It’s a three men and Gingrich race. While the former speaker does not have much of a hope of winning anything, he still has the best oration skills of the bunch and if he can get on TV enough, he could pose a problem for the other three in this Reality Show election process.

The Republicans are in a bind. They don’t have a candidate that turns them on. Meanwhile the Democrats are becoming more confident with each day that their man might just pull it off with the help of Republicans who are so disenfranchised and disgusted by their choices that they may not have a clear nominee until the Convention. By then there will be little time to go after the one candidate they are all trying to unseat!

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